France is politically goosed if Macron's big gamble on a snap election fails

The election results in Ireland delivered their own type of shock in the form of the return of the old guard. Expectations create political momentum. The old centrist parties were expected to do poorly and Sinn Féin was expected to do well, but the opposite happened. Momentum shifts not on absolute numbers but relative numbers. Expectations, particularly in a European or local election, set the tone for the next battle. All over the world, this gap between expectation and results creates political energy - and the energy can swing in either direction. In South Africa, for example, people expected the…